2025 – A Subsidence Surge Event Year?

With March having the least rainfall for 60 years in some areas of the UK, and April forecasts showing little change, could the UK be heading for a subsidence surge event? Using AI, we’ve analysed local and global climatic conditions leading up to previous surges to identify patterns and predictive signals.

The data points to 2025 as a high-risk year.
This article outlines our hypothesis and the climate drivers behind it.

UK Subsidence Surge Event Analysis & Forecasting

Synopsis

This report provides an in-depth analysis of subsidence surge events in the UK, integrating AI-driven climate modelling, geological risk factors, and urban influences to predict future high-risk years. By examining historical climate trends, ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), soil moisture levels, and additional environmental indicators, this report identifies key patterns that lead to subsidence events.

The analysis highlights that prolonged dry spells, early heatwaves, and shifts in global climate drivers—such as El Niño and La Niña events—can be used in forecasting subsidence risks. Based on these insights, the report predicts future high-risk years for subsidence surges, allowing Geobear to plan resources proactively and mitigate potential customer impacts.

1. Introduction

This report has been generated using advanced AI-driven climate and geological analysis, integrating historical data, meteorological trends, and predictive modelling to provide a comprehensive outlook on UK subsidence surge events. By leveraging machine learning, satellite monitoring, and climate forecasting, this report enhances the ability to anticipate and mitigate subsidence risks with data-driven insights.

Subsidence events in the UK are strongly influenced by prolonged dry weather conditions, often linked to broader atmospheric and climatic patterns. This report expands upon previous analyses by integrating additional global and regional climate indicators, geological risks, and urban influences to enhance the accuracy of subsidence surge predictions.

2. Historical Subsidence Surge Events

Subsidence surge years were identified as:

• 2003
• 2006
• 2010
• 2011
• 2018
• 2022

These years experienced significant increases in subsidence-related insurance claims, indicating a strong correlation with prolonged dry spells and soil shrinkage.

3. Climate Analysis of Past Surge Years (January–April)

3.1 Common Weather Patterns in Surge Years

Analysis of weather conditions from January to April in the surge years revealed key similarities:

1. Above-Average Temperatures
   • 2003: April saw near-record highs, reaching 27.3°C.
   • 2011: Warmest April on record in the UK.
   • 2022: Unusually early heatwaves in spring.
2. Below-Average Precipitation
   • 2003: Driest spring since 1893.
   • 2011: Exceptionally dry April across the UK.
   • 2018: Very low rainfall leading into summer.
3. Early Onset of Warm Conditions
   • 2003 & 2011: Temperatures exceeded 23°C by mid-April.
   • 2022: Spring heatwaves intensified soil drying.

3.2 Global Climate Drivers

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation)

ENSO phases significantly influence UK weather:

• El Niño Years:
  • 2003, 2006, 2010 saw El Niño conditions, leading to drier summers.
• La Niña Years:
  • 2011, 2018, 2022 had La Niña conditions, but still resulted in dry summers.

NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

• Negative NAO winters lead to drier summers, as seen in 2018 and 2022.
• Positive NAO winters tend to bring wetter summers, reducing subsidence risk.

Additional Global & Regional Indicators

1. Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) Events
   • Disrupts the polar vortex, leading to high-pressure dominance in summer.
   • Example: The 2018 Beast from the East preceded a very dry summer.
2. Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)
   • Warm AMO phases correlate with drier UK summers.
   • The UK is currently in a warm AMO phase, increasing future risk.
3. Soil Moisture Anomalies & Drought Indicators (SPEI)
   • Pre-summer soil moisture levels predict ground shrinkage.
   • Low winter rainfall paired with warm spring accelerates subsidence risks.
4. Arctic & Siberian Snow Cover
   • Low winter snow levels correlate with weaker jet streams and drier summers.

4. Predicting Future Subsidence Surge Years

Using the expanded dataset, we can refine predictions for future subsidence surge events.

4.1 Short-Term Focus: 2025–2027

• 2025: High probability of a dry summer and subsidence surge due to El Niño weakening.
• 2027: Potential surge year if La Niña strengthens in 2026.

4.2 Long-Term Risk (2030 & Beyond)

• 2030 is a major surge candidate due to El Niño alignment with previous high-risk years.
• 2033 presents medium risk, depending on preceding climate trends.

5. Recommendations for future 

• Monitor ENSO and NAO trends closely, particularly in early 2025 and 2027.
• Track January–April temperature and rainfall anomalies as key indicators.
• Expand risk analysis using soil moisture, CSI, and UHI data.
• Allocate resources in advance for potential surges in subsidence cases in predicted high-risk years.
• Develop early warning systems using climate models and AI.

6. Conclusion

By integrating global climate trends, geological factors, and urban influences, the industry can significantly enhance its ability to anticipate and mitigate subsidence risks. The expanded dataset offers a more precise forecast model, allowing for data-driven resource planning and proactive customer engagement.